Amid geopolitical tensions, the craze for artificial intelligence and the boom in crypto-assets, investors are seeing an increasing number of conflicting signals. For Mathias Gonzalez, CIO of Barclays Switzerland, the real risk lies not so much in volatility as in the excessive reactions it provokes. In this interview, he discusses the pitfalls of market timing, the transformations taking place in international wealth management, and the expectations of younger generations who wish to give greater meaning to their wealth.
Many investors feel they are operating in a particularly volatile environment. Do you agree with this assessment?
Not entirely. Of course, volatility exists. But when we talk about genuine volatility, I’m thinking of events such as the Covid pandemic or last year’s ‘Liberation Day’. These were major, unpredictable shocks capable of abruptly altering market expectations.
What we’re seeing today is more a matter of constantly striking a balance between resilient markets and a more uncertain geopolitical landscape. It’s a form of background noise that investors must learn to adapt to.
Ultimately, the markets still operate according to the same mechanisms. There are buyers and sellers, optimists and pessimists. The real difficulties generally arise when events occur that nobody had anticipated.
Our role is therefore not to predict short-term market movements, let alone the unpredictable, but to support our clients through various cycles with a long-term perspective.
However, geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and debates surrounding the US Federal Reserve are fuelling a sense of constant unease.
Political uncertainty has indeed increased in 2026 and is likely to remain high. Investors are wondering about changes to trade policies, upcoming elections and the degree of independence the next Federal Reserve leadership will enjoy.
At the same time, we continue to operate within a so-called ‘K-shaped’ economy. The wealthiest 20 per cent of households now account for nearly two-thirds of consumption, whilst lower income groups are bearing the brunt of economic pressures.
This situation is also reflected in the financial markets. 2025 was marked by a high concentration of returns, particularly in large-cap technology stocks and high-growth shares. Many investors felt they were missing out if they were not exposed to these segments. And in some cases, they were right.
Why?
Because collective enthusiasm rarely constitutes a sustainable investment strategy.
When everyone, from professional investors to Uber drivers, is recommending the same stocks, it is generally time to exercise extra caution. This is why we now place greater emphasis on the quality of companies, diversification and selectivity. The concentration risks that had built up in the markets began to reveal their limitations. Investors who remained diversified weathered this period far better.
Despite this, many investors continue to search for the ideal entry or exit point.
This is probably one of the most common mistakes. I do not believe in ‘market timing’. I place greater faith in the time spent invested than in the ability to anticipate market movements.
History shows that some of the best trading sessions often occur immediately after the worst. Investors who exit the market at the wrong time therefore risk missing out on a significant portion of the return. Over the long term, the markets have consistently demonstrated a remarkable ability to weather crises, from the Great Depression to the present day.
You advise both Swiss clients and high-net-worth families from the Middle East. What differences do you observe between these two worlds?
I would start by highlighting the many similarities. In both cases, investors prioritise quality, take a long-term view and attach great importance to the intergenerational transfer of wealth.
Historically, however, investors from the Middle East have been more exposed to private markets, whether through private equity, direct investment or secondary markets. They have generally been more willing to accept longer investment horizons and longer periods of illiquidity.
That said, recent geopolitical tensions in the region have led some of them to pay greater attention to preserving and strengthening their local capital base, which has altered certain behaviours to some extent.
Are Swiss investors still more cautious?
To a certain extent, yes. Traditionally, Swiss investors have favoured liquid assets. But this approach is changing. Many have learnt the lessons of the financial crisis and realised that liquidating a portfolio in a panic is generally not the best strategy.
Once you adopt a genuinely wealth-building and long-term perspective, it becomes more natural to take an interest in illiquid assets and the premiums they can offer compared to listed markets.
What role do blockchain and crypto-assets play today in the portfolios of high-net-worth individuals?
Globally, these areas are becoming increasingly important. The Middle East is particularly dynamic in this field. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates are investing heavily in blockchain infrastructure, artificial intelligence and digitalisation. They are deliberately attracting talent, entrepreneurs and companies operating within these ecosystems. This concentration of expertise creates an extremely dynamic environment.
And what about Switzerland?
Switzerland possesses considerable expertise, but its progress is sometimes more gradual.
I say this with the utmost respect. As someone who is half-Swiss, I am very familiar with this culture.
Let’s take a simple example: in some countries, if you run out of salt at home, all it takes is a few clicks on an app to have it delivered within minutes. In Switzerland, many people would still prefer to put on their shoes and pop down to the Migros. This is neither better nor worse. It simply reflects a different approach to innovation and the adoption of technology.
You often talk about the importance of discipline and taking a step back. Has that become more difficult in today’s environment?
Absolutely. In our line of work, the temptation to follow trends is ever-present. Yet our role is not simply to systematically reinforce our clients’ beliefs, but also to tell them what they need to hear.
I often compare our profession to that of a doctor. A good doctor doesn’t necessarily tell you what you want to hear; they tell you what you need to know.
This responsibility also applies to wealth management.
You take a keen interest in the new generations of investors. Why do you consider this subject so important?
Because we are on the cusp of the largest transfer of wealth in modern history. This transition will profoundly transform our industry. What strikes me most is the way this new generation views the world. Many young wealth holders have become true global citizens. They have grown up in several countries, studied on different continents and may well end up working in Dubai, Singapore, London or New York.
Their approach to investment is very different from that of their parents.
In what way?
The questions have changed.
In the past, a client would ask why one security should be favoured over another. Today, they are more concerned with whether their investments align with their values, or with the real impact of their wealth. The younger generations want to understand what their capital represents and the role it can play in society.
This is profoundly changing the nature of the dialogue between clients and their advisers.
Will this shift bring about a lasting transformation in wealth management?
I am convinced it will. The firms that succeed in the future will act as genuine long-term partners rather than mere providers of financial products.
It is about supporting families across several generations, understanding their objectives, their values and their outlook on the world in order to develop tailored strategies.
That, in my view, is where the real value creation in wealth management will lie.